Australia Immigration Reform: Structural Improvement Over Simple Reduction

Migrant Influx Surge and Current Figures

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, net overseas migration (NOM) for the 2024/25 financial year was 305,600. This is significantly lower than the 547,300 recorded in 2023, but still higher than pre-pandemic levels. For calendar years 2024 and 2025, the figures were 340,800 and 301,100 respectively.

For 2024/25, temporary visa holders accounted for 70% of NOM. Student visas comprised 156,700, or 43% of total temporary migrant arrivals. Former Deputy Secretary of Immigration Abul Rizvi stated that no one anticipated the 2023 surge.

According to Home Affairs data, as of July 31, 2026, 2.9 million temporary visa holders resided in Australia, with New Zealand citizens on special category visas accounting for 736,509 (20%).

Reduction Proposals and Feasibility

One Nation proposed a target of reducing NOM to 130,000. This would mean a reduction of 175,700 per year based on 2024/25 figures, a number that could not be achieved even by eliminating all student visas. Labor plans to reduce it to 225,000 by 2027/28, while the opposition Coalition aims for below 200,000.

Rizvi pointed out that drastically cutting student visas would impact international student tuition fees, which constitute half of the University of Sydney's revenue, and jeopardize 50,000 Australian jobs in the education sector. He stated that cutting small amounts across multiple categories would have fewer side effects than making large cuts from one or two visa categories.

Housing Costs and Regional Impacts

Associate Professor Anna Boucher of the University of Sydney explained that immigration reduction might have minimal impact on rental prices in some metropolitan areas, but property prices are influenced by complex factors including taxation and interest rates, and the overall effect is difficult to predict given that immigrant labor contributes to housing construction.

According to the 2021 census, 90% of student visa holders resided in metropolitan areas, with 80% of all temporary residents in metropolitan areas and about half concentrated in Sydney and Melbourne. In contrast, a Grattan Institute analysis of the 2016 census showed that mining regions like Western Australia's Pilbara and some agricultural areas were more dependent on immigrant labor.

40% of hospitality workers and 37% of healthcare and social services workers are overseas-born. Rizvi added that reductions could lead to increased delivery and food prices and disruptions in healthcare services.

Expert Recommendations

The 2023 Parkinson immigration system review report criticized reliance on large numbers of temporary entrants without a pathway to citizenship as contrary to Australia's national interest. The Grattan Institute proposed granting temporary visa status to all migrants earning above a certain wage without restricting them to specific occupations, limiting visas with permanent residency pathways to those under 30, and avoiding expansion of low-skilled job filling.

Henry Sherrell and Lachlan Vass recommended setting net migration at 1% of the population. This is similar to government projections of approximately 0.9% in 2026/27 and approximately 0.8% in 2027/28. They also proposed limiting temporary visas to a maximum of 8 years to clarify the deadline for permanent residency conversion, and offering cash incentives of $20,000-30,000 and superannuation tax exemptions upon departure to encourage voluntary exit of visa expiry cases.

A 2021 Treasury paper estimated an average economic contribution of $198,000 per skilled migrant.