Australia's Unprecedented Negative Migration Debate

Policy Details

One Nation, led by Pauline Hanson, has announced a pledge to turn net overseas migration negative for three years if elected. The policy involves reducing temporary visa holders by 766,000 over three years, with One Nation claiming this would lower rental price growth by a total of 6.5%, saving the average renter $54 per week.

The opposition Coalition leader Angus Taylor has also pledged to reduce net overseas migration to 100,000 per year during his first term. Given current net overseas migration of 300,000 and the Albanese government's target of 225,000, Taylor describes this as "the largest immigration reduction in Australian history."

Historical Context

Economist Mark Cully states in his book Waves of Plenty that Australia has never intentionally turned immigration negative. While governments in the 1970s-90s reduced the size of immigration programs, there was never an attempt to bring the permanent immigration program to zero.

Periods when Australia recorded negative net migration were limited to times of economic and social upheaval: the early 1890s economic depression and its aftermath maintaining negative averages until 1906, both World Wars when military forces departed, and the Great Depression of 1932 when unemployment reached 32%.

Economic Impact Assessment

Peter Tulip, former co-author of Reserve Bank research and current chief economist at the Centre for Independent Studies, assessed One Nation's projections as "not unreasonable" given the policy's scale. However, he warned that reduced university sector exports and government revenue impacts are inevitable, making it "economically worse."

Cully was more direct, noting that if past deep recessions caused sharp drops in net overseas migration, the reverse could also hold true. "If net overseas migration went negative for three years or more, it couldn't mean anything other than a prolonged economic recession."

Temporary Visa System Issues

Experts agree that Australia's immigration system has become unbalanced. The stable permanent immigration program of 185,000 per year has been overwhelmed by an unregulated, uncapped temporary visa system.

The proportion of temporary immigrants (excluding New Zealanders and tourist visa holders) in the total population has more than doubled over the past 15 years, from 2.9% in 2011 to 6.6% currently. Including New Zealanders and tourists exceeds 10%.

Hundreds of thousands of international students, temporary graduates and skilled visa holders, and working holiday participants work in Australian pubs and hospitals for years without permanent residency protections. Cully noted that "there is an underclass in Australia created by government policy."

ANU Migration Hub director Alan Gamlen argued that obsession with net overseas migration figures obscures the real challenge of controlling the temporary visa system, stating "we should focus on regulating temporary entrants, and we don't need to crash the economy."

Source: The Guardian