Australia's Fertility Rate Hits Record Low of 1.48, Expected to Fall to 1.34 by 2065

Fertility Rate Status and Projections

According to the 2026 Intergenerational Report released by Australia's Treasury, Australia's total fertility rate has reached a record low of 1.48 children per woman. This is lower than the levels predicted by previous reports.

The report projects that the fertility rate will decline further to 1.34 by 2065-66. The replacement fertility rate, at which a population maintains itself without immigration, is approximately 2.1.

Delayed childbearing has been identified as the primary cause of reduced family size and declining fertility rates. By the 2060s, the number of deaths is expected to exceed the number of births.

Major Causes of Delayed Childbearing

The report cited career establishment as one of the main reasons for delayed childbearing. Access to childcare facilities, unpaid care burden, housing stability, and workplace flexibility were also identified as factors influencing family formation decisions.

In 2023, more than one-third of births worldwide occurred to women aged 30 and over, compared to one-quarter in 1990.

According to research by University of Melbourne demographer Peter McDonald, temporary visa migrants are primarily young adults aged 20-35 who come to Australia for study or career development. While they fall within the childbearing age range, their actual contribution to births is relatively low.

Economic Impact

The report warned that if fertility rates and immigration fall below baseline projections, Australia's population could decrease by 1.9 million and the economy could shrink by 7.4 percent by 2065-66.

Demographer Liz Allen explained that Australia is entering a super-aged society where the population aged 65 and over will outnumber younger cohorts. With the current economy relying on personal income tax, aging and low fertility rates are reducing the proportion of the working-age population.

Migrants already constitute a significant portion of the healthcare and social support workforce. The report noted that the median age of new migrants is 26, lower than the overall population's 38 years in 2024-25, helping to slow the pace of aging and increase the proportion of the working-age population.

Migrant Fertility Patterns

Allen explained that migrants tend to follow the fertility patterns of their new country and, in some cases, show even lower fertility rates than the local population.

After arriving in Australia, many migrants prioritize work and education, tending to delay family formation until their late 30s or later. This is similar to the broader pattern observed in Australia's overall population.

Allen emphasized that Australia should focus on removing obstacles preventing people from achieving their desired family composition rather than achieving an ideal number of children. She added that until major challenges such as housing costs, economic stability, climate change, and gender equality are addressed, Australians will struggle to have the confidence and hope needed to plan for the future.

Original: Australians are having fewer babies. Can migration fill the gap?